| 摘要:针对各种船用替代燃料实船应用的风险，提出失效模式、后果和严重度分析（failure modes， effect and criticality analysis，FMECA）模糊综合评价法，即将传统的FMECA半定量风险评估法转化为定量风险评估，同时综合考虑各风险因素间的相互影响。将该方法运用于63 000 t液货船的甲醇燃料风险评估中，结果表明甲醇燃料的风险等级为中等，与实船应用结果相符，证明该方法可用于船用替代燃料的风险分析。 |
| 关键词: 能源转型 船用替代燃料 甲醇 FMECA模糊综合风险评价法 |
|
| Risk Analysis of Methanol Fuel Based on FMECA Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method |
| WANG Jianrong,FENG Huihua,LI Tie |
| School of Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China;Shanghai Marine Diesel Engine Research Institute, Shanghai 201108, China;State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China |
| Abstract:In response to the risks associated with on-board application of various marine alternative fuels，a failure mode，effect and criticality analysis（FMECA）fuzzy integrated assessment method is proposed，which transforms the traditional FMECA semi-quantitative risk assessment method into quantitative risk assessment，while comprehensively considering the mutual influence of various risk factors.The method was applied to the risk assessment of methanol fuel on a 63 000 t tanker and the results show that the risk level of methanol fuel is medium，which is in line with the results of the real ship application and proves that the method can be used for the risk analysis of marine alternative fuels. |
| Key words: energy transition marine alternative fuel methanol FMECA fuzzy integrated risk assessment method |
